Strategy

From today through the structural ceiling and the levers that break past it — built chronologically. Last updated 2026-05-22.

Build an automation-driven land acquisition machine that competes with traditional operations through throughput efficiency — processing more leads, making more offers, and closing more deals at thinner margins than any human-dependent operation.

Primary metric

Human minutes per deal closed (target: falling every month)

Secondary metric

$ GTV flowing through Land Ops (double-close spread + flip sales + hold acquisitions)

Taste

"The system should feel like running a deal desk, not managing a CRM. Operator's day: review the offers the system prepared, approve/counter/pass, adjust policy knobs."

Today

Where the system actually is, May 2026

Leads / month

10,000

Deals / yr

~28

Net / yr

~$100K

FL TAM share

0.04%

% of outbound ceiling

1.7%

Conversion at baseline (1 deal / 4,350 leads). 25K/mo target in flight. Pricing-model recalibration is current go-live gate.

2026 Stretch Execution Plan

Surfaced 2026-05-22 — what it takes to recover into the original Phase 4 EOY 2026 target band

Reality-check on May 22 showed throughput at ~3% of Phase 1 May target AND 0 system acquisitions to date (Bunnell legacy inventory is pre-system, doesn't count toward Phase 2 validation). Conservative trajectory lands EOY 2026 at 20-35 system acquisitions; this plan recovers into the original 50-100 Phase 4 band by activating 4 cold channels (mail, text-via-VAs, inbound paid, aggressive email warmup) AND firing the hiring ladder in June-July (textdesk + calldesk VAs).

Compression window: July-September 2026. Deals take 30-60 days offer → close, so a Q4 push produces 2027 closes, not EOY 2026.

Fragile months: June + July — if either slips, plan reverts to conservative landing.

Phase 2 gate: End of July (N=8-15 system acquisitions closed via Land Ops lead→offer→close funnel — Bunnell legacy does NOT count) is when the measured conversion integer becomes real. At that point OneFI models recalibrate and Phase 4-6 GTV math gets re-paced.

May 22, 2026: 808 unique leads touched lifetime, ~1,265 May sends, 0 system acquisitions, 1 legacy inventory parcel (Bunnell, acquired ~2 years ago pre-system) pending disposition, SMS auto-ramp not yet shipped, voice/calldesk infra ready with 0 VA, email warmup at Day 4-5 cap walking toward 2000/day.

Date	Day	Email cap	Sends target	Unique cum.	Operator actions	Bunnell
May 22	Fri	1000	100	830	✓ Compressed email warmup schedule (5-day curve, locked 5/19) Bunnell: contact Dorothy with EOD 5/26 deadline Greenlight mail-channel activation work for June ship	Dorothy outreach in flight
May 23	Sat	2000	80	900	Email curve hits Day 5 cap = 2000 (terminal in original 5-day curve) Operator-mode text push at 25-50/day	Awaiting Dorothy reply
May 24	Sun	2000	80	970	Week-prep: write June operator-decision checklist (VA accounts + pay band + textdesk/calldesk hiring sequence + inbound $1K)	Awaiting Dorothy reply
May 25	Mon	2000	150	1,100	✓ SMS auto-ramp shipped (PR #935): sms_daily_ceiling auto-managed via ratchet, va_texts_per_day bumped 300→10K Operator-mode text push: 25-50 sends	Dorothy still unresponsive; Christopher declined; Sean not local
May 26	Tue	2000	180	1,260	✓ Extended WARMUP_CEILINGS to 10-day curve (50→15K) so stepper has room past Day 5 Bunnell: widen REA outreach to next 3-5 ranked proximity-picker agents; deadline for live response = EOD 5/29 Mail-channel 500-piece push kicks off this week — calibrate vendor workflow DECISION POINT: pull calldesk VA hire forward from July to June?	Outreach widened; Dorothy/Christopher/Sean all out or silent
May 27	Wed	3500	200	1,440	Email stepper walks Day 5→6 (2K→3.5K) if 5/26 send cleared 50% sent-day guard Mail vendor: confirm reply-capture path is wired before week-2 push VA listing copy reviewed (drafts in i/scratch/va-listing-drafts.md)	REA outreach replies expected by EOD Friday
May 28	Thu	5000	250	1,670	Email Day 7 cap = 5K — sent-day guard requires actual sends to clear Confirm calldesk VA-hire decision (pull-forward yes/no)	Listing prep / showing schedule
May 29	Fri	7500	400	2,050	Email Day 8 cap = 7.5K — bounce/complaint metrics still healthy? Bunnell DEADLINE: live REA response or escalate via next outreach wave Week-end review: confirm June 1 operator-decision queue ready	Goal: under contract or close to it
May 30	Sat	10000	350	2,380	OPTIONAL: open OnlineJobs.ph employer account (unblocks June VA hire)	Bunnell update
May 31	Sun	15000	350	2,700	OPTIONAL: open VirtualStaff.ph employer account Confirm daily totals match plan; flag anything off-pace	End-of-May Bunnell status check

End-of-May target: Target May 31: ~2,700 unique cum (3.3× from May 22), email curve walked to Day 10 cap 15K/day, Bunnell sold/under contract or REA wave resolved (disposition milestone — does NOT close the Phase 2 validation gate), SMS cap clearing toward 450+ (if VA hired) or stuck at 300 (if not), voice still 0 unless calldesk VA pulled forward, mail at ~2K cum across 4 weekly pushes, 1-2 VA platforms registered. System acquisitions still 0 — first acquisition expected June at earliest.

Hardest day: May 26 (Tue) — Bunnell outreach-widening decision + curve extension + mail kickoff + calldesk-VA pull-forward decision all converge

Post curve-extension bounce rate watch. If ≥5% on any cap, stepper holds via the 50% sent-day guard. Curve extension 2026-05-26 reaches 15K/day at Day 10 — still 30% below AWS 50K/day quota.

Table 1 — Operator decisions per month (blockers only you can clear)

May 22-31Email warmup ramp ✓ done (5-day curve compressed 5/19, extended 5/26 to 10-day reaching 15K/day). Bunnell must close to force Phase 3 rails. Voice is the largest plan-vs-reality gap — decide this window, not in July.

Bunnell REA: Dorothy / Christopher / Sean all out or unresponsive — widen outreach to next 3-5 ranked proximity-picker agents, push for live response by EOD 5/29
Pull calldesk VA hire forward from July to June? At 0 calls/day, every delayed week is a structural Phase 1 gap
Mail-channel 500/wk push starts this week — calibrate vendor workflow + reply-capture path

JuneActivation month — every channel not on by June 30 doesn't compound into July-Sept's compression window.

Open OnlineJobs.ph + VirtualStaff.ph employer accounts (currently blocked)
Confirm VA pay band ($3-5/hr ceiling)
Confirm textdesk + calldesk VA hiring sequence + first VA start dates (replaces prior 'TCPA-safe text auto-approve scripts' framing — cold-SMS auto-send is deliberately not built; cap is already auto-managed; the lever is people)
Approve $1K paid-acq experiment (single county, Meta + Google)
Decide brand 'Wise Guy Buys Land' or operator personal for VA listings
Mail weekly cadence holds (500→1K→1.5K→2K)

JulyCapacity ramp — VA + capital + inbound spend turn on.

Hire first VA (calldesk caller)
Scale inbound paid acq to $5-10K/mo IF June experiment cleared ≥1 contact-to-offer
First capital partner conversation through Phase 3b funnel
Email warmup → 25K/day cap target

AugustCapacity meets demand — deals arrive faster than operator alone can close.

Hire 2nd VA (textdesk operator OR DD coordinator — based on which lane is binding)
Scale inbound to $15-25K/mo if conversion is tracking
Close first capital partner (external funding live)

SeptemberMid-year decision point — re-pace remaining quarters based on measured conversion.

Hire 3rd VA OR first W-2 specialist (compliance officer most likely)
Phase 6 prep: start state #2 scoping (2-day audit from geographic-competence scaffold)
Approve productization kit contents work IF Phase 2 conversion measures ≥ baseline

OctoberQ4 capital + scaling decisions to set up 2027.

Capital partner #2 signed
Decide: rename Phase 6 deliverable to 'State playbook' + start state #2 build OR push to Q1 2027

Nov-DecSteady-state operation.

Capital partner #3 signed
Year-end review: re-pace 2027 against measured numbers

Table 2 — System outputs per month (grading rubric)

Month	Email cap	Text/day	Call/day	Mail/mo	Inbound $	Touches	Unique cum.	Qualified cum.	Acq cum.	Disp cum.
May 22-31	2K (Day 5+) → 3.5K	cap 300 / ~25 actual	0 (no VA)	~500 (week 1 push)	$0	~12K	~1.5K	12-15	0	0-1 (Bunnell pending)
June	3.5K→10K	cap walks 300→1K / 100-300 (if VA)	50-100 (if VA)	~5K (weekly ramp)	$1K	~200K	~50K	30-50	1-3	1-2
July	10K→15K (curve max)	cap 1K→2.5K / 500-1K (2 VAs)	200	10K	$5-10K	~600K	~250K	100-150	8-15	2-3
August	15K (extend?)	cap 2.5K→4K / 1-2K	300	16K	$15-20K	~750K	~500K	250-400	22-35	3-5
September	15K	cap 4K→6K / 2-3K	400	20K	$20-25K	~900K	~900K	500-700	42-60	5-8
October	15K	6K / 3-4K	500	24K	$25-30K	~1M	~1.4M	700-1K	62-80	8-12
November	15K	6K / 4K	500	24K	$25-30K	~1M	~2M	900-1.3K	78-95	12-15
December	15K	6K / 4K	500	24K	$25-30K	~1M	~2.6M	1.1-1.6K	92-110	15-20

Stretch landing (if Table 1 holds)

If Table 1 holds: 92-110 system acquisitions, 15-20 inventory dispositions, ~2.6M cumulative touches, ~$1.5-3M GTV, 10+ FL counties, 2-3 VAs, 2-3 capital partners. Inside the original Phase 4 target band; top of range if everything compounds clean. First system acquisition is the Phase 2 validation-gate event.

Conservative landing (if Table 1 slips)

If Table 1 slips: 20-35 system acquisitions, 5-10 inventory dispositions (incl. Bunnell legacy), ~$300K-$1M GTV, 5-8 FL counties, 1 VA hired late, 0-1 capital partners. Phase 2 validation gate fires Aug-Sep (later signal), Phase 4 capital readiness slips to Q1-Q2 2027.

Full plan: docs/sessions/discoveries/2026-stretch-execution-plan.md

Current Quarter: March – June 2026

Roadmap-level objectives

MarchSystem live, leads being contacted, funnel metrics visible daily✅ done

April-May10K → 25K leads, first deals reaching verbal agreement, feedback loop tuning🟡 in flight (808 unique touched lifetime, 0 system acquisitions; Bunnell legacy disposition in flight)

June5-15 system-acquired closings (Bunnell legacy does NOT count), first system revenue, unit economics measured from real transactions⬜ ahead (0 → 5-15 in 30 days requires June activation)

Current gate

Pricing engine recalibration. Operator loading PropStream leads into the pricing engine (huge task, operator-led — not agent-delegable). Once recalibration is complete, the two remaining go-live tasks unblock and Land Ops flips to live.

Tactical Plan

Version milestones + monthly focus pulled from docs/kernel/plan.md

Version cadence

Version	Target	Scope	Status
v0.2.0	2026-02	Full acquisition pipeline: market targeting, outbound sequences, inbound AI, deals pipeline, negotiation schemas, disposition schemas, inventory UI	✅ shipped
v0.2.1	2026-02	Deal workflow audit: 10-stage pipeline, all handlers implemented, staleness cron, happy-path chains	✅ shipped
v0.3.0	2026-02	Production deployment: Railway (Postgres + Redis + API), Vercel (ops + landing), CI/CD auto-deploy, staging env, 119/119 eval scenarios	✅ shipped
v0.3.1	2026-03	Go-live: provider approvals, seed data, DRY_RUN=false, buyer network seed, daily reporting	✅ shipped
v0.4.0	2026 Apr-Jun	First revenue: deal editing, stage advancement, scale to 25K leads, first closings	🟡 in flight
v0.5.0	2026 Q3	Close the loop: buyer CRM, 3-outcome routing, listings, acquisition-to-disposition automated	⬜ next
v0.6.0	2026 Q4	FL mastered: 10+ counties, capital readiness, unit economics documented	⬜ future
v1.0.0	2027	Multi-state: geographic expansion, recreational rural, capital event	⬜ future

Monthly focus (current quarter)

April 2026"Get from go-live to 10K leads. Make the deal desk usable at volume."

Scale to 10,000 leads
Decisions/control dashboard — operator feed for quickly reviewing AI suggestions
Deal editing + stage advancement UI
Disposition rails start (buyer segmentation, listing package generator)
Wire deal intelligence (motivation_score + urgency) to deal desk routing
Web retargeting activation (Meta/Google audiences from pixel data)

Outcome targets: 10K leads. First deals reaching verbal agreement. Deal desk time < 45 min/day.

May 2026"Quality at volume. Segment-specific strategies. Deals moving toward closing."

Scale to 25,000 leads
Segmentation: 3-5 micro-segments with own offer bands, messaging, tempo
Compliance hardening (complaint workflow, audit logs)
Deal lifecycle automation (doc requests, title coordination, DD checklist)
Offer policy v2: segmented by micro-market + property characteristics
A/B testing cadence (one variable per week)

Outcome targets: 25K leads processed. Automation stable. Segmentation producing different outcomes per segment.

June 2026"Close deals. Wire up real external services. Measure unit economics."

First closings — target 5-15 cumulative closed deals
DocuSign / e-signature wired to send_contract handler
Title company integration (order_title_search, contact_title_company)
Wire transfer + earnest money escrow tracking
Lender/financing integration + deal funding approval workflow
Survey vendor integration
Unit economics dashboard (cost/lead → cost/close, gross profit/close, cycle time)

Outcome targets: 5-15 closed deals. First real revenue. Unit economics from real transactions. Cost per deal measured.

Phased Roadmap

11 phases from go-live to category of one (2026 → 2030)

Phase 0Go Live

"Ship it, make it safe, make it measurable"

Timing: March 2026

Team: 1 operator + VAs + AI

Outcome target: System live, leads being contacted. 0 closed deals (pipeline filling). Daily funnel metrics visible.

Phase 1Scale

"10K leads without breaking quality"

Timing: April-May 2026

Team: 1 operator + 1-2 VAs + AI

Outcome target: 10K leads (April), 25K leads (May). First deals reaching verbal agreement. Deal desk time < 45 min/day.

Phase 2Unit Economics

"Florida lot machine"

Timing: Q2 2026 (Apr-Jun)

Team: 1 operator + 1-2 VAs + AI

Outcome target: 5-15 cumulative closed deals. First real revenue. Unit economics from real transactions.

Phase 3Sell-Side Automation

"Close the loop (acquisition → disposition)"

Timing: Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep)

Team: 1 operator + 2-3 VAs + AI

Outcome target: 15-50 closed deals. Acquisition-to-disposition loop proven. Hold portfolio: first 1-3 properties.

Phase 3bCapital Partner Funnel

"Show off the machine"

Timing: Q3-Q4 2026

Team: 1 operator + AI

Outcome target: Funnel live, first capital partner conversations happening through the system.

Phase 4Dominance

"Multi-county FL + capital efficiency"

Timing: Q4 2026 (Oct-Dec)

Team: 1 operator + 2-3 VAs + AI

Outcome target: 50-100+ closed deals. 10+ FL counties active. Unit economics documented. Inbound deal flow starting.

Phase 5Productize

"New county in 48 hours"

Timing: Q1 2027

Team: 2-4 people (operator + compliance + engineering)

Outcome target: 200+ cumulative deals. New county setup in 48 hours. Playbook documented.

Phase 6Geographic Expansion

"Beyond Florida"

Timing: Q2-Q3 2027

Team: 3-8 people (compliance, partner ops, engineering, maybe finance)

Outcome target: $10-50M GTV. 2-3 states. 500+ cumulative deals. Recreational rural as second proven lane.

Phase 7Infrastructure Layer

"Financing hooks + partner network"

Timing: Q4 2027

Team: 5-10 people

Outcome target: $20-50M+ GTV. Partner network forming per region.

Phase 8Regional Infrastructure

"Minimal human involvement"

Timing: 2028

Team: 8-15 people

Outcome target: $50-200M GTV. 5-8 states. Zero human touches on standard deals. Hold portfolio: $5-20M.

Phase 9National Presence + Data Moat

"Information + workflow control"

Timing: 2029

Team: 15-25 people

Outcome target: $200-500M GTV. 10-15 states. 3+ years of continuous pricing data. Data products emerging.

Phase 10Category of One

"Not a brokerage, not a flipper, not a fund"

Timing: 2030

Team: 20-30 people

Outcome target: $500M-$1B GTV. 15-20 states. Multiple land types. Hold portfolio: $20-100M. Institutional capital flowing.

Ceiling-Breakers Track

Four cross-cutting bets that close the gap between outbound-only FL ceiling and the Phase 10 GTV target

Phase 10 GTV target ($500M-$1B by 2030) is 15-30× the outbound-only FL TAM ceiling (~$15-33M/yr net). The phased roadmap implicitly assumes four cross-cutting bets close that gap — only one (geographic expansion) is named explicitly. This track makes all four load-bearing bets visible as parallel work, gated on the Phase 2 conversion-rate validation gate.

Disposition-as-destination

Scaffold drafted, not yet /discovery

Sellers route TO Land Ops (warm intent, 5-20× outbound conversion). Without this, Phase 10 GTV depends entirely on geographic expansion alone.

Scaffold: docs/sessions/discoveries/disposition-as-destination.md

Geographic state playbook

Implicit in Phase 6; audit drafted 2026-05-22

Multi-state operation. Audit grades every FL primitive; 5 state-specific primitives (cadastral, zoning, pricing recalibration, wholesaling/title legal, LLC qualification) drive a 6-12 week per-state effort. Phase 6 deliverable should be renamed 'State playbook' (codified system), not 'Add 1-2 states.'

Scaffold: docs/sessions/discoveries/geographic-competence-audit.md

Productization (Kit + Engine)

Speculation; product surface scoped

Sell the system, not just the deals. Land Ops becomes the reference implementation; revenue diversifies into kit licensing + engine subscription.

Scaffold: inside.wiseguybuysland.com (product surface)

Hiring ladder

Scaffold drafted 2026-05-22

Operator + VA → real org. Single-operator throughput is structurally capped; Phase 7+ team sizing (5-30 people) presupposes a ladder that doesn't yet exist.

Scaffold: docs/sessions/discoveries/hiring-ladder.md

All four are gated on the Phase 2 validation gate (measured blended conversion rate). Each can be matured independently and each fails independently. See docs/kernel/roadmap.md → "Ceiling-Breakers Track" for the full framing.

FL TAM (Land Ops strategy)

Vacant residential (dor_uc=000), 0.1-20 acres • FDOR cadastral 2025 (vintage 2026-01-06)

Universe (parcels)

1,149,659

Stock value

$85.06B

2024 GTV (arms-length)

$6.25B / yr

Turnover

5.77% / yr

Avg jv / parcel

$73,985

2024 sales count

66,278

Median sale 2024

$35,000

Mean sale 2024

$94,366

Trajectory to full TAM

From today through the structural ceiling and the levers that break past it

Same lead volumes that the current playbook scales toward. Conversion stays at baseline until 2029, then assumes the system has graduated to multi-channel-beats. Stalls at ~$22M/yr net and ~7% FL TAM — outbound mechanics can't push past the universe × cadence wall.

Stage	When	Leads/mo	Conv	Deals/yr	GTV/yr	Net/yr	FL TAM %
Today	May 2026	10K	1/4,350	28	$1.0M	~$100K	0.04%
Roadmap May target	mid-2026	25K	1/4,350	69	$2.4M	~$250K	0.10%
Scale-up	Q4 2026	50K	1/4,350	138	$4.8M	~$500K	0.21%
Multi-county FL	mid-2027	100K	1/4,350	276	$9.7M	~$1.0M	0.42%
Productized	end-2027	200K	1/4,350	552	$19.3M	~$2.0M	0.83%
Push	2028	300K	1/4,350	828	$29.0M	~$3.0M	1.25%
Realistic ceiling (6 cycles/yr)	2029	575K	1/4,350	1,586	$55.5M	~$5.7M	2.4%
Same vol, multi-ch conv	2029	575K	1/2,900	2,379	$83.3M	~$11.3M	3.6%
Aggressive ceiling (12 cycles/yr)	2030	1.15M	1/2,900	4,758	$166.5M	~$22.5M	7.2%

How to read this

Path A alone tops out at ~$22M/yr net by 2030. Adding B + C bends the curve to $100M+/yr inside FL. Path D is the only road to literal 100% FL TAM — and it's a business-model pivot, not a scale problem.

The honest answer: strategically, 3-6% US share is the bigger and more realistic payoff than maximum FL share. The compounding path is B + C + US expansion in parallel from ~2028.

Strategic Telescope

Multi-decade view. Every tactical decision should ladder up through these horizons

Horizon	Thesis	What it means for decisions today
3100	Operating system for land transactions	Build for compounding — every transaction should make the system smarter
2100	The S&P of land — exchange / clearinghouse	Capture data deliberately, not as a byproduct
2050	Institution — outlives any individual operator	Build systems, not heroics. Repeatable > clever
2040	Dominant national operator ($2-5B GTV)	Geographic expansion + multiple land types required
2030	Category of one ($500M-$1B GTV, 15-20 states)	Capital event in years 2-4 is the growth inflection
2027	Prove it scales beyond FL ($10-50M GTV)	Multi-state + recreational rural. First external capital
Q4 2026	FL mastered (50-100+ deals, unit economics proven)	Repeatable playbook across 10+ FL counties
Q3 2026	Close the loop (acquisition → disposition automated)	Buyer network + 3-outcome routing operational
June 2026	First closings (5-15 deals, real revenue)	Disposition capability must exist before deals close
Apr-May 2026	First contact with reality (assumptions break, adapt)	Feedback loop is the #1 survival mechanism
March 2026	Go live (system processing real leads)	Ship it. Everything else depends on this

Three survival must-haves (validated across all horizons)

Tight feedback loop — Measure, surface, tune. Catch broken assumptions fast.
Compliance survival — No carrier bans, no lawsuits, no regulatory shutdown. Existential.
Capital velocity — Optimize for how fast capital turns, not just margin per deal. This attracts external capital.

The flywheel at every horizon: better information → better decisions → more transactions → more information.

Key Strategic Decisions

Locked decisions that shape every downstream choice

2026-02-25Revenue model: double-close + flip + hold

Revenue from double-close spread (primary, thin margin, high volume), flip spread (secondary, selective, higher margin), and hold appreciation/yield (tertiary, strategic). Automation-driven thin margins are the competitive advantage.

2026-02-25Initial wedge: FL vacant lots

Residential vacant lots in Florida as the first lane. Recreational rural as second wedge (Q2-Q3 2027). Ag, timber, transitional are 2028+. FL lots have fast comps, repeatable underwriting, lots of motivated sellers, deep buyer pool.

2026-03-03Roadmap pacing correction (timeline 3x compressed)

Realistic targets: first $5-10M GTV by year 2, 0.1% share (~$140M) by year 4-5, 1% ($1.4B) by year 8-10. Category of one by 2030 replaces 'Own the market.'

2026-03-03Capital event as growth inflection

External capital (fund / credit facility / strategic partner) in years 2-4 is the growth discontinuity. 'Capital Readiness' is a Phase 4 milestone.

2026-03-03Hold portfolio as long-term wealth engine

The hold portfolio (land appreciation + yield over decades) is potentially the most valuable part of the business by year 10+. Elevate from 'tertiary' to deliberate strategy tracked from Phase 3 onward. Berkshire insight applied to land.

2026-03-20Assignment/wholesale removed

All acquisitions execute via double-close (we close on both buy and sell sides). No assignment fees. Originally double-close + flip + hold + wholesale; wholesale removed.

2026-05-22FL TAM = $6.25B/yr (replaces $140B-nationwide framing)

Bottoms-up from FDOR cadastral 2025 for the actual Land Ops strategy (vacant residential, 0.1-20 ac). Prior $140B included production ag + timber + commercial that Land Ops doesn't touch. Structural outbound-only ceiling is ~5-7% FL share / $15-30M net.

Date

Day

Email cap

Sends target

Unique cum.

Operator actions

Bunnell

May 22

Fri

1000

100

830

✓ Compressed email warmup schedule (5-day curve, locked 5/19)
Bunnell: contact Dorothy with EOD 5/26 deadline
Greenlight mail-channel activation work for June ship

Dorothy outreach in flight

May 23

Sat

2000

900

Email curve hits Day 5 cap = 2000 (terminal in original 5-day curve)
Operator-mode text push at 25-50/day

Awaiting Dorothy reply

May 24

Sun

2000

970

Week-prep: write June operator-decision checklist (VA accounts + pay band + textdesk/calldesk hiring sequence + inbound $1K)

Awaiting Dorothy reply

May 25

Mon

2000

150

1,100

✓ SMS auto-ramp shipped (PR #935): sms_daily_ceiling auto-managed via ratchet, va_texts_per_day bumped 300→10K
Operator-mode text push: 25-50 sends

Dorothy still unresponsive; Christopher declined; Sean not local

May 26

Tue

2000

180

1,260

✓ Extended WARMUP_CEILINGS to 10-day curve (50→15K) so stepper has room past Day 5
Bunnell: widen REA outreach to next 3-5 ranked proximity-picker agents; deadline for live response = EOD 5/29
Mail-channel 500-piece push kicks off this week — calibrate vendor workflow
DECISION POINT: pull calldesk VA hire forward from July to June?

Outreach widened; Dorothy/Christopher/Sean all out or silent

May 27

Wed

3500

200

1,440

Email stepper walks Day 5→6 (2K→3.5K) if 5/26 send cleared 50% sent-day guard
Mail vendor: confirm reply-capture path is wired before week-2 push
VA listing copy reviewed (drafts in i/scratch/va-listing-drafts.md)

REA outreach replies expected by EOD Friday

May 28

Thu

5000

250

1,670

Email Day 7 cap = 5K — sent-day guard requires actual sends to clear
Confirm calldesk VA-hire decision (pull-forward yes/no)

Listing prep / showing schedule

May 29

Fri

7500

400

2,050

Email Day 8 cap = 7.5K — bounce/complaint metrics still healthy?
Bunnell DEADLINE: live REA response or escalate via next outreach wave
Week-end review: confirm June 1 operator-decision queue ready

Goal: under contract or close to it

May 30

Sat

10000

350

2,380

OPTIONAL: open OnlineJobs.ph employer account (unblocks June VA hire)

Bunnell update

May 31

Sun

15000

350

2,700

OPTIONAL: open VirtualStaff.ph employer account
Confirm daily totals match plan; flag anything off-pace

End-of-May Bunnell status check

Month

Email cap

Text/day

Call/day

Mail/mo

Inbound $

Touches

Unique cum.

Qualified cum.

Acq cum.

Disp cum.

May 22-31

2K (Day 5+) → 3.5K

cap 300 / ~25 actual

0 (no VA)

~500 (week 1 push)

~12K

~1.5K

12-15

0-1 (Bunnell pending)

June

3.5K→10K

cap walks 300→1K / 100-300 (if VA)

50-100 (if VA)

~5K (weekly ramp)

$1K

~200K

~50K

30-50

1-3

1-2

July

10K→15K (curve max)

cap 1K→2.5K / 500-1K (2 VAs)

200

10K

$5-10K

~600K

~250K

100-150

8-15

2-3

August

15K (extend?)

cap 2.5K→4K / 1-2K

300

16K

$15-20K

~750K

~500K

250-400

22-35

3-5

September

15K

cap 4K→6K / 2-3K

400

20K

$20-25K

~900K

500-700

42-60

5-8

October

15K

6K / 3-4K

500

24K

$25-30K

~1M

~1.4M

700-1K

62-80

8-12

November

15K

6K / 4K

500

24K

$25-30K

~1M

~2M

900-1.3K

78-95

12-15

December

15K

6K / 4K

500

24K

$25-30K

~1M

~2.6M

1.1-1.6K

92-110

15-20

Version

Target

Scope

Status

v0.2.0

2026-02

Full acquisition pipeline: market targeting, outbound sequences, inbound AI, deals pipeline, negotiation schemas, disposition schemas, inventory UI

✅ shipped

v0.2.1

2026-02

Deal workflow audit: 10-stage pipeline, all handlers implemented, staleness cron, happy-path chains

✅ shipped

v0.3.0

2026-02

Production deployment: Railway (Postgres + Redis + API), Vercel (ops + landing), CI/CD auto-deploy, staging env, 119/119 eval scenarios

✅ shipped

v0.3.1

2026-03

Go-live: provider approvals, seed data, DRY_RUN=false, buyer network seed, daily reporting

✅ shipped

v0.4.0

2026 Apr-Jun

First revenue: deal editing, stage advancement, scale to 25K leads, first closings

🟡 in flight

v0.5.0

2026 Q3

Close the loop: buyer CRM, 3-outcome routing, listings, acquisition-to-disposition automated

⬜ next

v0.6.0

2026 Q4

FL mastered: 10+ counties, capital readiness, unit economics documented

⬜ future

v1.0.0

2027

Multi-state: geographic expansion, recreational rural, capital event

⬜ future

Stage

When

Leads/mo

Conv

Deals/yr

GTV/yr

Net/yr

FL TAM %

Today

May 2026

10K

1/4,350

$1.0M

~$100K

0.04%

Roadmap May target

mid-2026

25K

1/4,350

$2.4M

~$250K

0.10%

Scale-up

Q4 2026

50K

1/4,350

138

$4.8M

~$500K

0.21%

Multi-county FL

mid-2027

100K

1/4,350

276

$9.7M

~$1.0M

0.42%

Productized

end-2027

200K

1/4,350

552

$19.3M

~$2.0M

0.83%

Push

2028

300K

1/4,350

828

$29.0M

~$3.0M

1.25%

Realistic ceiling (6 cycles/yr)

2029

575K

1/4,350

1,586

$55.5M

~$5.7M

2.4%

Same vol, multi-ch conv

2029

575K

1/2,900

2,379

$83.3M

~$11.3M

3.6%

Aggressive ceiling (12 cycles/yr)

2030

1.15M

1/2,900

4,758

$166.5M

~$22.5M

7.2%

Horizon

Thesis

What it means for decisions today

3100

Operating system for land transactions

Build for compounding — every transaction should make the system smarter

2100

The S&P of land — exchange / clearinghouse

Capture data deliberately, not as a byproduct

2050

Institution — outlives any individual operator

Build systems, not heroics. Repeatable > clever

2040

Dominant national operator ($2-5B GTV)

Geographic expansion + multiple land types required

2030

Category of one ($500M-$1B GTV, 15-20 states)

Capital event in years 2-4 is the growth inflection

2027

Prove it scales beyond FL ($10-50M GTV)

Multi-state + recreational rural. First external capital

Q4 2026

FL mastered (50-100+ deals, unit economics proven)

Repeatable playbook across 10+ FL counties

Q3 2026

Close the loop (acquisition → disposition automated)

Buyer network + 3-outcome routing operational

June 2026

First closings (5-15 deals, real revenue)

Disposition capability must exist before deals close

Apr-May 2026

First contact with reality (assumptions break, adapt)

Feedback loop is the #1 survival mechanism

March 2026

Go live (system processing real leads)

Ship it. Everything else depends on this